Pretty rough morning of weather modeling as much newest guidance continues to show the trend we discussed as a possibility yesterday – that is a narrowing window of meaningful precipitation across our area, and for some communities a possible full-on-miss.
Ensemble guidance still looks healthy enough (relatively), but even here the trend has been drier. And frankly, with the drying showing up in the operational models this morning, I’m not sure this will be enough to save us. What’s new?
The European ensemble model’s QPF dropped from roughly 0.9″ for Denver yesterday to 0.6″ overnight, with high-end potential now much more reasonable looking (1 – 1.5″ rather than 2″+).
The shift in the operational models has been even more dramatic…