Intense convection continues tonight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with Invest 97L. It is fairly concentrated and circular. And there appears to be well established outflow.
A microwave satellite pass showed an apparent center near 15N -82W. This is on the western side of the deep convection, so the system is still not very organized. I would not be surprised to see the center reform a little further to the east. That would be more in line with the GFS depiction of how things will develop tomorrow.
The 18z run of the GFS from this afternoon does have a depression forming in that area by tomorrow morning. ‘
The early track guidance from 0z is clustered on the Mexico Beach, Apalachicola area.
But the GFS ensembles from 18z are more concerning for points further west, including the central Panhandle into South Alabama.
The European ensembles seems to be playing catch up to the GFS.
The intensity guidance is concerning as well:
The water is extremely warm with high oceanic heat content all along the track. In fact, the storm will pass over the Loop Current over the southern Gulf, which will be like jet fuel with its high oceanic heat content. Divergence aloft looks favorable along the track, as does atmospheric moisture. In fact, the one fly in the ointment against strengtehing is outflow from Depression Ten in the eastern Pacific, but there are signs that won’t be a problem…