In all honesty, it could end as early as today. That’s not what we’re talking about though. It’s been so dry in the northeast that we’ll take any moisture that we can squeeze out of this frontal system. It just won’t be enough to help ongoing fire concerns in the region. Not yet.
You probably know the drill – nothing that can cause a spark or a flame, not just today, but until we can end the dry spell. In fact, the state of New York is enforcing a burn ban for the rest of the month.
What would help? A long-lasting rain that we can spread out over the course of a few days. How do we get that? A slow-moving low is a great start. The upper-level low that is kicking through some (meager) rain chances today will slow down and rotate around a few more shots at precipitation. Some of that is going to come in the form of snow.
Where it snows could fluctuate, depending on the temperature profile in the atmosphere Thursday into Friday, potentially extending into the weekend. Those details will come once we get closer. The best bet to see enough snow to impact travel will be in the Appalachian Mountains. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued to cover parts of West Virginia and Maryland with more than 6 inches of snow possible.
The exact details will vary day-to-day, but periods of rain and snow will cycle through the northeast and Mid-Atlantic from Wednesday through Saturday. If this system stalls out over the Atlantic waters, we could see it deepen and pull down even more cold air. That is what snow-lovers should root for; right now that doesn’t seem like a sure bet. Since the low will likely wobble back and forth over land and off, it doesn’t look like it has a great chance to deepen…