In brief: It is the final hours before the Arctic freeze sets in, and we’ve got the latest information on what to expect in terms of cold and wintry precipitation, and when to expect it. The bottom line is that Tuesday and possibly Wednesday both look very iffy for traveling around Houston.
It could be worse
As I type this, the Houston Texans are kicking off against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs. Game-time temperatures are in the low 20s, with gusty northwesterly winds. By Tuesday morning the low temperature there is expected to be -1 degree Fahrenheit. So yes, Houston is going to get cold this coming week, but it could always be worse. Also, let’s go Texans!
Temperatures will soon begin falling
It’s fairly pleasant outside, with temperatures in the low 60s across much of the Houston region. But don’t be fooled. Winds are steady from the northwest, and as the Sun falls toward the horizon, temperatures will follow. Lows tonight will drop to around freezing in Houston, and with gusty northerly winds the apparent temperature will feel as if it is in the low 20s, at least tomorrow morning. So if you’re joining me at the Houston Marathon, bundle up, wear layers, and use the cold as motivation to go faster. Despite the cold start, Sunday will be fine in terms of getting out and about. Highs will reach the low- to- mid-40s with sunny skies.
MLK Day
Houston will likely see a light freeze on Monday morning, although some inland areas (i.e. along and north of Highway 105) could see lows drop into the mid- to upper-20s. But Monday should be mostly fine for any last minute preparations ahead of a winter storm. Highs will be around 40 degrees. I’m afraid it’s a dreary forecast for MLK Day festivities, with increasing clouds and gusty easterly winds keeping a distinct chill in the air.
Monday night through Wednesday morning
You should plan to be home by around 9 pm CT or so on Monday. Although temperatures probably won’t fall below freezing until a few hours later, we might start to see some light sleet or snow by around this time. Temperatures reach freezing levels by midnight or so, when precipitation coverage should also begin to increase.
This is the point of the forecast where we are still mired in uncertainty. The key questions are a) how much moisture will be available for precipitation to form and fall, and b) what kind of wintry mix will develop. Neither is answerable yet. For areas along and north of Interstate 10, I continue to think snow is the most likely option (perhaps 1-3 inches, or more), but we could see sleet mixed in. For areas south of Interstate 10, sleet may be more likely than snow, although we may still see some snow there. Further to the southwest, in Matagorda and Brazoria counties, we may see freezing rain as the dominant precipitation.
The bottom line is that when you wake up on Tuesday, some sort of winter wonderland (or nightmare) is going to exist outside. Snow/sleet/freezing rain is likely to continue through the morning hours on Tuesday, and possibly into the early afternoon. We may see some partially clearing skies by evening. However, temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing on Tuesday, and if they do in Houston it may only be for an hour or two. So I don’t think we’re going to get enough warmth to melt and clear streets…