Roanoke, VA – Sunday Morning Update
Storm timing has shifted to occur later in the afternoon tomorrow, meaning a lot of these storms could form during peak hours of daytime heating. That has led the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to upgrade our severe risk to an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for areas east of I-81. That enhanced risk is primarily to account for an increased risk of tornadic development in the afternoon. Damaging winds are still going to be the most widespread concern, but there is now an increased risk for tornado development and large hail compared to what we were seeing yesterday, when the arrival of the front was expected earlier in the day.
The primary area of concern for tornadic development comes within the Piedmont region of the state, as that will be where we see the most ample energy within our region. It is possible there is some embedded rotation within the main line of storms, but the storms with the greatest chances of producing a tornado will come ahead of the front, and operate in a more isolated manner…