The mid-level ridge of high pressure is shifting westward, allowing a favorable upper airflow from northwest to southeast to brush parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday before the ridge expands back over the region. During this period of northwest flow, there’s a chance for a complex of storms to approach the area.
Any significant storm complex that arrives Tuesday night into early Wednesday could bring damaging winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. June’s precipitation has been sparse, with some areas beginning to experience the early stages of a flash drought. While rainfall would be welcome, it would not significantly alter the heat or humidity on Wednesday afternoon.
What will the weather be like in Oklahoma on Wednesday, June 26?
A weak outflow boundary is likely to be near or south of I-40 Wednesday afternoon where increasing instability is likely to develop. A few additional scattered storms will be possible near and south of the boundary, including the mention of a few strong to severe storms capable of some damaging downbursts.
Humidity levels will be high near the boundary. Some locations of southern OK may be placed in excessive heat warnings with heat index values nearing 112 to 114 Wednesday afternoon. Locations across northern OK will remain in a heat advisory with indices ranging from 105 to 110.
Data indicates that the ridge will start to expand westward and strengthen early next week, slightly east of Oklahoma. Before this occurs, this could allow for a brief opportunity for another system to approach northern Oklahoma Saturday night into Sunday, with a chance for another storm complex in the vicinity.
However, based on the current pattern, most of this system is expected to remain along or north of the ridge’s upper edge. Consequently, our probability of storms will remain low, around 20 to 30%, for this forecast period. The excessive heat and humidity are set to continue through the weekend and into the following week…