Forde-Yard Dash: Quarterback Changes, Close-Game Losses and Regression to the Mean

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football ( prayers answered separately in Boulder ):

First Quarter: Twelve Angry Men (and Women)

The 12-team College Football Playoff is a wellspring of hope and excitement for dozens of fan bases. But as the losses accrue, it also will be a source of discontent for those who see their chances slipping away. Each week, The Dash will identify 12 people dealing with damaged playoff hopes, and gauge their teams’ chances of rebounding from calamity.

Bob Stoops (1)

The Oklahoma Sooners icon saw them lose the battle of his former assistants, one of whom (Tennessee Volunteers coach Josh Heupel) he once fired. The other guy, Brent Venables, is now facing renewed doubts—about his quarterbacks, about his offensive coordinator, and about his overall ability to restore Oklahoma’s playoff pedigree as a newcomer to the vicious Southeastern Conference.

Venables’s record is now 19–11 after the Sooners were power-slapped by the Volunteers, 25–15, in a game that was not as close as the score. In two games against power-conference competition, Oklahoma has rushed for a total of 111 yards on 63 carries. That’s put added pressure on quarterback Jackson Arnold, and the sophomore has struggled—he had three turnovers against Tennessee, a flashback to his error-prone bowl performance last year. Arnold was benched in the second half Saturday, with backup Michael Hawkins providing a spark that could (and should) lead to a lineup change next week at the Auburn Tigers.

Beyond the quarterback, offensive coordinator Seth Littrell has also been the target of fan angst. In his first season replacing Jeff Lebby in the role, Oklahoma’s scoring is down 12.7 points per game; yards per play is down 2.27; and pass efficiency rating is down 45.18 points. While a lot of that is attributable to losing Dillon Gabriel to the Oregon Ducks, the guy calling the plays will also catch heat when the drop-off is that dramatic…

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