After 4 weeks of SEC play, there’s a pretty clear hierarchy in the league. Six SEC teams will be playing for likely 4 (maybe 5) College Football Playoff spots. The league seems to have a massive gap between No. 6 and No. 7.
Meanwhile, we’re still here projecting final regular season records. As we get deeper into the season, there’s more looking at the schedule and trying to forecast individual games. But for the moment, still largely based off something more of a consensus view of that team’s schedule, here’s our regular season projections for the SEC.
Georgia: 11-1 (3-0, off this week)
While we started with UGA at 12-0, after an ugly grinder with Kentucky and the impressive work of the teams behind UGA, we moved the Dawgs back to 11-1.
With road games at Bama, Texas and Ole Miss, it’s just too tough of a run for UGA to emerge completely unscathed. That said, many recent moments of UGA giving underwhelming performances have been followed by beatdowns. If UGA can ever get its players healthy, they’re still the top contender. But that is an “if” by now.
Texas: 11-1 (4-0, beat UL-Monroe 51-3)
That Longhorns’ schedule is looking pretty nice. Yes, they get Georgia, but it’s at home on Oct. 19. Who’s the second toughest game on UT’s schedule? At Texas A&M, home against Florida or Kentucky Oklahoma hasn’t shown much, but rivalry games always could be in that list too. It’s not exactly murderer’s row, so we’ll leave UT at 11-1.
Ole Miss: 10-2 (4-0, beat Georgia Southern 52-13)
Is it fair to say we’re still figuring out Ole Miss? Seeing how the Rebels fare in their next 3 games (vs. Kentucky, at South Carolina, at LSU) should tell the tale of whether 10-2 is about right, a bit optimistic, or even underrating Ole Miss. The offense has been amazing, but for the moment, the lack of competition keeps the Rebels here.
Alabama: 10-2 (3-0, off this week)
Talk about a game to learn something. If Alabama beats Georgia, they’re up top with Texas. If not, a challenging schedule could drop them to a 9-3 projection, considering that road games at Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma are still upcoming.
Missouri: 10-2 (4-0, beat Vanderbilt 30-27)
For the second week in a row, Missouri had to hang on against relatively underwhelming competition. The Tigers don’t have many tough games ahead. They’re off in Week 5, and then travel to Texas A&M in a game that presents an opportunity for the Tigers to do more than survive and advance. If the path to a potential Playoff spot via remaining schedule is the topic, then Missouri is in brilliant shape.
Tennessee: 10-2 (4-0, beat Oklahoma 25-15)
The Vols took care of business. If they didn’t have Alabama and Georgia on the schedule, UT would be entitled to an 11-1 projection. But they do, so we’ll stick at 10-2 for the moment.
LSU: 8-4 (3-1, beat UCLA 34-17)
Nothing especially impressive here. This UCLA team is fairly awful, but the game was tied at halftime and competitive well into the fourth quarter. LSU tightened up its run defense, but can the Tigers prove much against a team with a pulse? The Ole Miss game on Oct. 12 is a really solid chance to make a statement or get lit up like a Christmas tree.
Texas A&M: 8-4 (3-1, beat Bowling Green 26-20)
On the one hand, it’s a 6-point home win against a MAC team. On the other, A&M found a way to win with Marcel Reed at quarterback. The Aggies don’t play Georgia and Alabama, which helps. But Texas, Missouri and LSU could all be rough. Conner Weigman’s return is a key story to watch.
Oklahoma: 6-6 (3-1, lost to Tennessee 25-15)
There are real issues for an Oklahoma team that has largely been a survive-and-advance group anyway. Tennessee shut down the run, allowing 36 rushing yards on 34 plays. In the air, Jackson Arnold was awful and gave way to a sharper Michael Hawkins Jr…