Additional Coverage:
- Russia’s war economy is on its last legs, but peace may be even worse for Vladimir Putin, experts say (newsbreak.com)
Russia’s War Economy Faces Collapse
Experts warn that Russia’s economy cannot sustain its military campaign in Ukraine beyond next year. The country’s factories cannot replace the weapons lost in battle, such as tanks and artillery.
End of War Poses Threat to Putin
However, ending the war could also pose a threat to President Vladimir Putin’s regime. Demobilizing the military and cutting defense spending would trigger economic downturn and unemployment.
Putin’s Dilemma
If Putin ends the war, he faces three options:
- Shrink the military: This would cause a recession.
- Maintain a large military: This would stunt economic growth.
- Use military to seize resources: This would involve using force to obtain resources from neighboring states.
Experts believe Russia’s large military incentivizes the Kremlin to use it to extract resources from other countries. This poses a threat to Putin’s regime as other options are politically or economically unpalatable.
President-Elect Trump Signals Interest in Ending War
Incoming US President Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to end the fighting. President Joe Biden is providing Ukraine with weapons and support before Trump takes office.