Additional Coverage:
- Russia’s navy sought a safer spot, but is still at the mercy of Ukraine’s drones and missiles, experts say (newsbreak.com)
On November 27, 2023, amidst a stormy backdrop, a warship was photographed docked at Sochi, a coastal resort city along the Black Sea. This image comes at a time when reports have emerged about Russia initiating missile strikes on Ukraine from the Sea of Azov, as stated by a Ukrainian military spokesperson. The strategic shift to the Sea of Azov, which is bordered by Russia-occupied southern Ukraine and connected to the Black Sea via the Kerch Strait, is believed to offer Russian naval forces a semblance of safety away from the vulnerabilities experienced in the Black Sea.
Ukrainian military spokesperson Dmitry Pletenchuk highlighted that the decision to deploy missile attacks from the Sea of Azov marks a significant tactical pivot. Russia’s preference for the Sea of Azov stems from its perceived security advantages over the more perilous Black Sea waters, where Russia’s naval capabilities have faced significant losses. It’s been reported that a sizeable fraction of the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been compromised, prompting a reevaluation of tactical engagements and base relocations to mitigate further losses.
Recent observations have disclosed the presence of seven Russian naval ships in the Azov, specifically noting that two are outfitted with Kalibr cruise missiles. Analysts and military experts suggest that Russia’s dominion over the Azov’s coastlines presents challenges for Ukraine in deploying sea drones, a key offensive tool against Russian naval forces. Despite these challenges, experts argue that Russian ships are still within the targeting scope of Ukraine’s aerial drones and missiles, showcasing the persistent threat faced by Russian naval assets irrespective of their location.
The move to the Sea of Azov also indicates a broader strategy of repositioning and defense fortification by Russian forces, especially in response to past maritime losses. Notably, defensive measures around the Kerch Strait have been intensified, demonstrated by recent satellite imagery showing barge and boom deployments aimed at thwarting Ukrainian sea drone mobility through this critical passage.
The strategy reflects an adaptation by Russian forces, aiming to exploit geographical advantages and enhanced protective measures to safeguard naval assets. However, experts warn that the confinement within the Sea of Azov could paradoxically render Russian ships more susceptible to precision strikes, emphasizing the ongoing risk of advanced Western weaponry currently in Ukraine’s arsenal.
The evolving naval strategy in the Sea of Azov may well replicate the challenges faced by Russia in the Black Sea, with Ukrainian forces potentially leveraging tighter operational confines to their advantage. This ongoing dynamic underscores the highly contested nature of maritime domains in the region and the continuous adaptation by both Ukrainian and Russian forces amidst escalating tensions.